Why so little on outsiders?

[acw]

I do read the picks being posted here in this forum. And I find the write ups informative. I will admit that I sometimes interpret them differently though. I.e. if I read that a certain player is likely not to play and he is considered a good player, but not according to my nos., then BINGO. I will go against any suggestions.

It goes without saying that shopping on the internet for the best price is essential. And I am happy to see that many are price sensitive in their selections, though even better would be, if posters start posting the (minimum) chances (%) they give to a team to win (or not win). I may be an easy talker in this, as I have software that simply gives me these chances, which I then compare with the Asian markets. In the old days my bets would be 50% favourites and 50% outsiders. In my point of view there is absolutely no bias on the Asian handicaps. It is only that I noticed recently that I tend to find more value on the favourites than on the outsiders and as a consequence I started the thread ‘fighting for the favourites’, but if I have to believe most of the posters here on this forum, then most of the value has to be found on the favourites.
Take a much respected poster like chriscol:
1860 München - Frankfurt: 1860 München -0.5 @ 1.70 !! 2 units!!
Dortmund - Hannover: Dortmund -0.5 / -1 @ 1.752
Köln - Freiburg: Köln pk, -0.5 @ 2.04
Bremen- Stuttgart: Bremen pk, -0.5 @ 1.98
Wolfsburg - Rostock: Wolfsburg -0.5, - 1 @ 1.775
These are all high quality picks, but no outsiders.
I am not saying that this is stupid! We are all winners, so there is value on favourites. I just wonder if people have a certain fear betting outsiders? I have noticed this with some square friends. They would often say that a certain team is giving too many goals, but they will then not as a consequence bet on the other side.

 

[GreenDoberman]

If you look at my picks in the 100 picks thread, you will know I have good success with a mix of favorites and underdogs. I'd say I probably do a bit better picking the underdogs, although I haven't analyzed it that close yet.

 

[matahari]

After checking out my betting history for the last 3 months I see that in 65% of matches I was on a team eating the handicap and in 35% on a team giving the handicap, so it looks like I'm biased towards "underdogs", if there's such in asian handicap betting.
To explain my last phrase, I've come to the conclusion that one of the gross mistakes commited by squares is when a team is a clear favourite in 3-way odds, to still consider it a favourite on handicap, e.g. in the forthcoming Champions League matches we have:
AC Milan - Club Brugge (-1.5) 2.00 1.91
Real Madrid - Partizan (-2.25) 1.93 1.975
(odds from Pointbet)

Now, where are the favourites here, may I ask ???

So far in the Champions League (mostly) I see the public very keen to back those "favourites".

acw,

It would be interesting to discuss how do you rate the importance of players and implement it in the software, the goal scorers seem to be obvious, but additionally is there a rating according to a player presence/absence in the successful/or not games ?